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Prediction-market settlement audits

Know why the market moved, and exactly how it settles.

PolyTruth matches Polymarket price moves to the official source named in the contract (BLS, Federal Reserve, SEC, NHC, Federal Register) and runs a 5-point fine-print check for timezone, trigger, and fallback traps. No black-box probability guesses, and no unnamed sources.

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Current Market Highlights

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Featured catalystFed & Rates.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Live market: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Catalyst date: Oct 28, 2026

Yes95%No6%
Tape Lean: Yes (58% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

94.5¢ YES (+2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 58% bid-heavy ($1.94M vs $1.39M) · Announcement settles it

-Yes chance
24h vol
$566K
24h Δ
+2.0 pp
Spread
1.0¢

Settlement trap: Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs.

View 5-Point Rule Card →Compare with Kalshi ⇄

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Odds are Polymarket prices shown for research only. Tapping an outcome opens the 5-point rule card; PolyTruth does not place trades.

Latest attributed movesfeed →
  • Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?3m ago
    Source: Credible-reporting consensus

    Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (14.5¢ → 14.5¢); last-hour volume 5.9× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $4.5k bid / $528 ask.

  • Lightning vs. Utah3m ago
    Named source: NHL official (implied)

    Contract moved -14.0 pp in 15m (75.5¢ → 61.5¢); last-hour volume 7.2× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $3.4k bid / $5.2k ask.

  • Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)3m ago
    Named source: MLB official

    Contract moved +3.0 pp in 15m (30.5¢ → 33.5¢); contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $4.7k bid / $6.7k ask.

  • Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.53m ago
    Named source: NBA official (implied)

    Contract moved +25.0 pp in 15m (47.0¢ → 72.0¢); last-hour volume 12.5× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 6.0¢; depth ±5¢ $352 bid / $349 ask.

Primary-source catalyst tracker

Every ≥3 pp move is checked against the .gov feed named in the contract. Green = official release in window; amber = zero releases (orderflow or rumor).

5-point rule-trap cards

Source, cutoff timezone, trigger (announced vs. signed), shutdown/revision fallback, and cross-venue diff, plus the tape and rule lean, audited autonomously for every market.

Cross-venue rule diff

Paste a Polymarket URL and Kalshi rules side by side. Spots “arbitrage” that is actually a settlement mismatch, net of fees.

Sample rule-trap cards

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
High Trap Risk (55/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk High 55
1.
Named primary resolution source
NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories · https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Observed EventLandfall at Category 5 intensity as reported in an NHC advisory.
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season officially ends Nov 30 but the window runs to Dec 31.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm can be upgraded or downgraded in reanalysis, so a venue using the TCR can settle differently from one that uses the initial advisory.
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 35
1.
Named primary resolution source
BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U) · https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Preliminary PrintInitial monthly BLS CPI news release (first print at one decimal place); subsequent revisions are excluded on both venues.
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) Strict inequality: Kalshi "> X%" requires at least X + 0.1% at one-decimal precision, whereas Polymarket range brackets include both endpoints; (3) Headline CPI-U vs. Core CPI (less food and energy).
PolyTruth: Settlement fine print and primary-source catalysts for prediction markets.